The 1960's public and half the elites in the USA couldn't tolerate a WW2-style Vietnam. They probably could have won if they had.
If we're talking about the current US war with Iran, the public (at least) oppose a WW2-style war even more, and it's now questionable if the country has the material/industrial means to win any time soon, even if the will did exist. Yet the elites really do want the war.
If we're talking about the Ukraine proxy war, the public in both the USA and Europe certainly won't tolerate a WW2-style war. The material/industrial means in the West are questionable for this war, too. But the Western ruling elites also want this war.
If we can call both of these wars collectively a proto-WW3, then the situation right now (relatively quiet) might be akin to the Phony War in WW2. Very few kinetic moves are being made while much is being set up behind the scenes and at different conflict zones. Everything seems deadlocked, and there is no question of either side backing down.
As the pressures build up, I suspect that some event or action will trigger the whole mess into a cascade of rapid, aggressive moves. This event or action, whatever it is, will either galvanize the unwilling Western public to fight and sacrifice (a Pearl Harbor or 9/11 type event), or it will function Covid-style, using drummed-up fear to justify the governments' yanking people off the streets to fight as they do in Ukraine; and the weak, apathetic people will put up with every abuse.
I don't know. Right now people tell me that Germany is preparing to mobilise men under the age of 45 and in my country they are talking about drafting both men AND women. Those who say they want diplomatic solutions are accused of being traitors. As someone wrote in a discussion on this topic yesterday, we may not have enough prison cells for those who would refuse to serve, but there are still enough walls...
As for Iran, December at the very latest, something is going to happen. We live in crazy times.
The 1960's public and half the elites in the USA couldn't tolerate a WW2-style Vietnam. They probably could have won if they had.
ReplyDeleteIf we're talking about the current US war with Iran, the public (at least) oppose a WW2-style war even more, and it's now questionable if the country has the material/industrial means to win any time soon, even if the will did exist. Yet the elites really do want the war.
If we're talking about the Ukraine proxy war, the public in both the USA and Europe certainly won't tolerate a WW2-style war. The material/industrial means in the West are questionable for this war, too. But the Western ruling elites also want this war.
If we can call both of these wars collectively a proto-WW3, then the situation right now (relatively quiet) might be akin to the Phony War in WW2. Very few kinetic moves are being made while much is being set up behind the scenes and at different conflict zones. Everything seems deadlocked, and there is no question of either side backing down.
As the pressures build up, I suspect that some event or action will trigger the whole mess into a cascade of rapid, aggressive moves. This event or action, whatever it is, will either galvanize the unwilling Western public to fight and sacrifice (a Pearl Harbor or 9/11 type event), or it will function Covid-style, using drummed-up fear to justify the governments' yanking people off the streets to fight as they do in Ukraine; and the weak, apathetic people will put up with every abuse.
I don't know. Right now people tell me that Germany is preparing to mobilise men under the age of 45 and in my country they are talking about drafting both men AND women. Those who say they want diplomatic solutions are accused of being traitors. As someone wrote in a discussion on this topic yesterday, we may not have enough prison cells for those who would refuse to serve, but there are still enough walls...
ReplyDeleteAs for Iran, December at the very latest, something is going to happen. We live in crazy times.